Trading expectancy calculator
Expectancy is the average result per trade implied by a win rate and the average size of wins and losses. Multiply the win rate by the average win, then subtract the loss rate multiplied by the average loss. A record winning 40% of trades with average wins of 300 and average losses of 100 has an expectancy of 60 per trade, in whatever unit the averages were entered.
Calculate
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The formula
expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss)
Rates are used as decimals internally; enter the win rate as a percentage between 0 and 100. The loss rate is one minus the win rate. The result carries the unit of the averages entered.
Worked example
A 40% win rate with average wins of 300 and average losses of 100:
- win side = 0.40 × 300 = 120
- loss side = 0.60 × 100 = 60
- 120 − 60 = 60.00 expectancy per trade
Illustrative figures, not a result from any account.
What the sign means
A positive expectancy says that, over the trades used to produce these three inputs, the average result per trade was above zero. A negative expectancy says it was below. Zero says the wins and losses balanced exactly.
It is an average over records already closed, not a forecast. Nothing about a past average establishes what the next trade or the next hundred will do, and this page makes no such claim.
What expectancy does not tell you
- Nothing about future results. It is an arithmetic average of inputs describing the past.
- Nothing about variance. Two records with the same expectancy can have very different runs of losses.
- Nothing about sequence, so it cannot show the depth or length of a drawdown.
- Nothing about whether the averages are stable. A single outsized win can move the average win substantially.
Questions
Is expectancy the same as expected profit?
No, and the distinction matters. It is an average computed from figures describing trades that have already closed. It describes that record. It does not forecast the next trade, and no calculator can.
What unit is the result in?
Whatever unit the average win and average loss were entered in. The calculator is unitless by design, so the result is currency if the inputs were currency and pips if they were pips.
Can expectancy be positive while the record lost money?
Yes, if the averages entered exclude costs that the actual results included, or if the averages come from a different set of trades than the win rate. All three inputs need to describe the same records.
What does an expectancy of zero mean?
That the win side and the loss side balanced exactly over the trades measured. Before costs that is breakeven; after costs that are not already inside the averages, it is a loss.
Related
Profit factor calculator — Profit factor expresses the same balance as a ratio of totals rather than an average per trade.
GoldenRock Analyser — computes this metric from recorded MT4 and MT5 trading history rather than from figures typed by hand. GoldenRock Analyser is an authenticated GoldenRock feature currently not enabled for general public access.
Position sizing and risk management — the decision this arithmetic does not make for you.
Risk disclosure — educational content only, not investment advice.